Hungarians vote in record numbers in election that could oust Orban, rattle Russia

BUDAPEST - Hungarians were voting on April 12 in an election that could end Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s 16-year hold on power, rattle Russia and send shockwaves through right-wing circles across the West, including US President Donald Trump’s White House.

Mr Orban, a eurosceptic nationalist, has carved out a model of an “illiberal democracy” seen as a blueprint by Mr Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement and its admirers in Europe.

But many Hungarians have grown increasingly weary of Mr Orban, 62, after three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs, as well as reports of oligarchs close to the government amassing more wealth.

Opinion polls have shown Mr Orban’s Fidesz party trailing Mr Peter Magyar’s upstart centre-right opposition Tisza party by 7 to 9 percentage points, with Tisza at around 38 per cent to 41 per cent.

Pollsters predicted a record voter turnout and data at 1100 GMT showed over 54 per cent of voters had cast their ballots, up from 40 per cent at the same time in the 2022 election.

Television footage showed long queues outside some voting stations in Budapest.

Mr Magyar, after casting his vote in Budapest, said Hungarians would write history at this election as they choose “between East and West”, and he also urged voters to report any irregularities they may encounter.

“Election fraud is a very serious crime,” he added.

Mr Magyar expressed confidence about the outcome of the election, saying the only question was whether Tisza won a simple majority or a two-thirds majority in the 199-seat Parliament that would allow it to amend Hungary’s Constitution.

Mr Orban, who cast his vote in the same Budapest district, told reporters he had come “to win”.

“There is a Constitution in Hungary and it needs to be followed. The decision of the people needs to be respected,” said the veteran leader, who swept the last four elections.

Four years ago, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights said that ballot had been run professionally but that an uneven playing field could have impacted the result.

Casting his vote for Tisza in the Hungarian capital, Mr Mihaly Bacsi, 27, said: “We need an improvement in public mood, there is too much tension in many areas and the current government only fuels these sentiments.”

Another voter, 83-year old Istvan Stofka, said he wanted Mr Orban to continue his welfare and family policies and voted for Fidesz to stay, saying: “This (Fidesz) is the only party, since the change of regime, that has fulfilled their promises.”

Mr Orban has cast the election as a choice between “war and peace”.

During campaigning, the government blanketed the country with signs warning that Tisza leader Magyar would drag Hungary into Russia’s war with Ukraine, something he strongly denies.

The vote is being closely watched in Brussels, with many European Union peers criticising Mr Orban, a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a close Mr Trump ally, over what they say is an erosion of Hungary’s democratic rule, media freedom and minority rights.

An Orban defeat would deprive Russia of its closest ally in the EU, while for Ukraine it could mean the release of a €90 billion (S$134.5 billion) EU loan vital for Kyiv’s war effort that the Hungarian leader has been blocking.

Public discontent

Mr Orban has won public endorsements from the Trump administration – culminating in a visit to Budapest by US Vice-President J.D. Vance last week – as well as from the Kremlin and far-right leaders in Europe.

But his campaign has been shaken by media reports alleging that his government colluded with Moscow.

Mr Orban, who denies any wrongdoing, says his goal is to protect Hungary’s national identity and traditional Christian values within the EU and its security in a dangerous world.

Meanwhile, former Orban loyalist Magyar, 45, has tapped into discontent over alleged state corruption and falling living standards, with young voters particularly eager for change.

Despite Tisza’s poll lead, analysts caution that the outcome of the vote remains uncertain, with many undecided voters, a redrawing of the electoral map in favour of Fidesz and a high proportion of ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries, who mostly support the ruling party. They say anything from a Tisza supermajority – able to change the Constitution – to a Fidesz majority is possible.

If Tisza does win, unwinding the legal and institutional changes Mr Orban has made may prove a daunting task for a new government if it has a simple majority in Parliament.

Polling stations close at 7pm. REUTERS